A theory of change is a step-by-step plan for how your thesis can have a meaningful impact on some of the world’s most pressing problems. It can help you clearly map how your thesis can lead to change in the real world - whether by informing decision-makers, influencing a field, or building your own future career for impact.
A key part of building a ToC is asking - who needs to act differently in order for change to happen, and how can your work influence them? Examples may include informing key decision-makers in policy, influencing how a company acts, etc.
ToCs are widely used in global development, nonprofits, and policy to improve decision-making and accountability. At Effective Thesis, we believe that creating a ToC is one of the most important ways to increase the impact of any thesis (or research or project for that matter!) – yet it’s rarely taught at universities.
Why do ToCs matter?
At Effective Thesis, we believe that creating a ToC is one of the most important ways to increase the impact of any thesis (or research or project for that matter!) – yet it’s rarely taught at universities.
A common failure mode is assuming: “I’ll do the research, and once it’s complete, impact will magically happen afterward.”
Example of no Theory of Change
In reality, the end of a research project is often where impact can begin—but only if it’s applied effectively. Creating a ToC and adopting a ToC mindset helps avoid this trap by making you think strategically about how your work leads to change.
⭐ Instead of assuming “impact will magically happen after the research is done,” a ToC forces you to ask:
What’s the long-term change I want to see?
What are the steps that need to happen between my thesis now and my long-term vision?
Who needs to act differently for what to happen?
Who are these people, and how might you collaborate or communicate with them?
And, how could my thesis influence them?
Without a clear Theory of Change, the impact of your thesis can remain highly uncertain. Your time, resources, and efforts can easily be wasted if:
You target the wrong problem - one that’s less pressing or already well-addressed, or not well-suited to your skills and context
You target the right problem and produce great research, but your findings never reach the people who could act on them
You miss opportunities for broader influence or long-term impact due to highly uncertain pathways
As such, completing a ToC at the beginning of your project, and continuing to review it through your research process, can help you:
Prioritise thesis topics that are likely to be impactful in practice (not just in theory!) For example, you might choose a project that not only addresses a pressing problem, but also has a realistic path to influence a decision-maker, organization, or broader field.
Be intentional about how your thesis will result in real-world impact in the world. A ToC helps you clarify how your thesis could lead to change—and what steps are needed to get there.
Clarify and act on the steps required to achieve impact. A ToC can help identify ways to reduce uncertainty along the path to impact. For example, if your findings are meant to influence how a charity delivers an intervention, you might proactively partner with that organization during your research process. This increases the likelihood that they’ll engage with your results and apply them in practice - making your impact pathway much more robust and realistic.
Communicate your thesis’s purpose more clearly to others. Whether you're pitching your project to a supervisor, applying for a grant, or talking with a potential collaborator, a well-developed ToC helps you explain why your work matters and how deeply you’ve thought about the impact of your work.
How a Theory of Change Works
A ToC breaks down your path to impact into these key components:
1. Vision/Goal: What’s the change you ultimately want to contribute to in the world? For example, this may be: Reduce existential risk from AI, improve health equity, improve climate resilience, etc.
2. Outcomes: What intermediate steps must happen for your goal to be achieved? Who needs to implement your findings and how? Outcomes might include a policymaker adopting your recommendations, a company updating its internal practices, or you using your thesis to secure a role at a high-impact organization where you can continue influencing the field.
3. Outputs: What will your thesis tangibly produce? These are usually what most students focus on - but in a ToC, they’re only one part of the picture (right at the beginning!). Outputs could include your final thesis document, a policy brief, a dataset, a stakeholder presentation, or even a blog post aimed at a wider audience.
4. Assumptions and Uncertainties What are the assumptions underlying each step, and how certain are you about them? For instance, how certain are you that an organization will read and act on your findings? Are there ways in which you could make this more certain (i.e. directly partnering with the org)? A thesis might appear to have a high-impact goal, but if every step depends on highly uncertain assumptions, it may be better to pivot toward a more reliable path to impact.
2. Examples of Theory of Change Applied to Research
See here for examples of ToC in different domains for not-so-great to good ToCs!
Global Health and Development Example
Version 1: “My thesis analyses a charity’s intervention aimed at reducing mortality rates.”
This sounds potentially impactful but lacks key elements of a ToC. It doesn’t specify what kind of analysis you’re doing, who will use your research, or how your findings might lead to real-world change. Without this, the pathway to impact remains vague and uncertain.
Version 2: A stronger ToC may look like: “My thesis evaluates the effectiveness of a new intervention implemented by a global health charity in Country X. I will partner with Charity Y and analyse internal data to assess whether the intervention significantly reduces mortality rates, and share the findings with the charity through a tailored report and presentation. If the findings are positive, the charity may scale the program nationally or use the results to secure additional funding. If the findings are negative, they could use the results to redesign or discontinue the intervention, improving the allocation of their limited resources.”
Version 3: “My thesis evaluates the effectiveness of a new intervention implemented by a global health charity in Country X.
Problem Area: I’ve partnered directly with the organization to access internal data and ensure the findings are practically useful. Beyond publishing the thesis, I plan to deliver a tailored report and present the findings to the charity’s leadership team, with the hope that the results will inform and improve their intervention strategy. However, I recognize there’s uncertainty around the quality of my research, how the charity will act on the findings and whether those changes will lead to real-world reductions in mortality.
Career Path: Even if the direct impact on the intervention is limited, the process of designing and delivering this project will help me build skills in applied global health research and strengthen my connections with high-impact actors. This will increase my chances of pursuing a career in charity entrepreneurship or evidence-based policy—both of which could lead to greater impact over the long term.
Community: I also hope the project will raise awareness of high-impact global health topics within my university department and inspire peers to work on similar problems, contributing to a broader shift in academic and career priorities among those around me.”
This is an even stronger ToC as it recognises the uncertainties at each step and incorporates other forms of potential impact—such as other pathways to impact such as career development, other new charities being developed or others existing charities implementing findings or inspiring more peers to go into high-impact careers.
Mechanistic Interpretability & AI Safety Example
Version 1: “My thesis focuses on mechanistic interpretability because AI Safety is an important problem.” This is a good starting point — but it’s not yet a ToC. It doesn’t specify what your thesis is trying to discover, who might use the findings, or how it will contribute to impact.
Version 2: A stronger ToC might look like: “My thesis focuses on a comparative analysis of safety protocols in AI model deployment. My goal is to work with Company X to influence the design of their internal governance policies. If adopted, these protocols could reduce risks of unintended model behavior.”
This version is much stronger. It includes a clear research question, identifies a specific stakeholder (Company X), and outlines a pathway to impact: changing internal governance practices to make AI deployment safer. However, it still assumes a relatively linear and optimistic path—one that may not reflect the actual complexity or uncertainty involved.
Version 3: An even stronger ToC acknowledges the uncertainties inherent in trying to directly solve a complex, high-stakes problem like AI safety—especially within the scope of a single thesis. It also broadens the theory of change to include other impactful dimensions, such as personal career development and community influence.
This may look like: “My thesis focuses on a comparative analysis of safety protocols in AI model deployment. My goal is to work with Company X to influence the design of their internal governance policies. If adopted, these protocols could reduce risks of unintended model behavior.
However, this pathway is highly uncertain—Company X may not adopt the recommendations, or the changes may have limited real-world effects. That said, the process of conducting this research will allow me to develop key technical skills, build connections in the field, and strengthen my credibility as an AI safety researcher. This will position me to apply for roles at leading safety-focused labs where I can contribute to more direct and scalable safety interventions over the long term.”
3. How to Develop your ToC
Developing your ToC starts by working backwards from the change you want to see. Here’s how to approach it:
Define your vision: What is the ultimate impact you hope to achieve? What would the world look like if your goal were realized?
What is the bottleneck to progress towards this vision? (Week 3): Identify the key barrier that’s slowing progress on the problem you care about. Ask: What needs to change in the world for this bottleneck to be resolved?
Identify the stakeholders (Week 3): Who has the power to act on this bottleneck?
Whatdo these stakeholders need to do differently (Week 3): Then ask: What needs to change in their actions, decisions, or behavior to make progress possible? These would be the Outcomes in your ToC - for example, if your key stakeholders are policy advocates, your outcomes might be that policy advocates use stronger evidence to push for improved policies.
Position your thesis: Finally, consider how your research can influence those stakeholders and help close the gap. Ask: How can my thesis generate insights, tools, or evidence that support the change these stakeholders need to make?
Key idea: By working backwards from the change you want to see, your ToC links the vision of a better world → the bottleneck on progress → the stakeholders that need to act differently → your research, ensuring your thesis is strategically designed for real-world impact.
Example: Developing a ToC for an Animal Welfare Thesis
Vision: Reduce animal suffering and environmental harm by increasing the adoption of alternative proteins.
Bottleneck: Even when effective alternative protein solutions exist, they are not widely adopted due to insufficient policy support, incentives, or advocacy to drive implementation.
Stakeholder: Policy Advocates – Individuals or organizations who can push for policies, incentives, and regulations that promote alternative protein adoption, but often lack the evidence or data to make the case effectively.
Your thesis: Your research can directly support these stakeholders in several ways:
Advocacy Support: Produce evidence, policy briefs, or analysis that helps advocacy groups make a strong case for regulations, subsidies, or incentives supporting alternative protein adoption.
Implementation Pathways: Identify barriers to scaling alternative protein solutions (e.g., funding gaps, regulatory challenges) and suggest actionable strategies for overcoming them.
The key takeaway: Your thesis is not just about producing research - it’s about strategically integrating your work into the chain of steps that lead to real-world impact.
